Polymarket 详解：2026 年独立中文指南

如何注册 Polymarket

几分钟创建 Polymarket 账户：确认所在地区可用，用邮箱或钱包注册，做好账户安全设置，并避开假冒的 Polymarket 网站。

如何在 Polymarket 充值

2026 年如何给 Polymarket 充值：支持的链和代币、最低充值金额、pUSD 如何运作、费用，以及充值未到账时该怎么办。

如何在 Polymarket 交易

完成你的第一笔 Polymarket 交易：如何看懂市场、选择 YES 或 NO、市价单与限价单的区别、如何提前卖出，以及新手常犯的亏钱错误。

如何从 Polymarket 提现

如何从 Polymarket 提取收益：兑换股份，将 pUSD 以 USDC 形式提到钱包或交易所，网络选择、费用和常见问题排查。

在 Polymarket 上浏览实时市场 →

Polymarket 是什么？它是如何运作的？

Polymarket 是什么：$0–$1 股份如何运作、谁在运营、Polymarket US 与国际平台的区别，以及主要风险。

Polymarket禁令追踪：在哪里被封锁及原因

实时追踪Polymarket在哪些国家被禁止或封锁：涵盖Polymarket自身的地理封锁名单，以及各国监管机构的禁令、封锁和警告，附日期与来源。

2026 年 Polymarket 手续费

Polymarket 最新手续费：各类别吃单费率、手续费公式、挂单返佣、免手续费市场和充值费用，另附免费的 Polymarket 手续费计算器。

Polymarket 市场如何结算

Polymarket 如何决定输赢：书面规则、结算来源、UMA 乐观预言机、质疑期、争议处理，以及交易者需要了解的风险。

Polymarket 在你所在地合法吗？

2026 年 Polymarket 在哪些地区可用：受 CFTC 监管的 Polymarket US，以及限制其使用的 40 多个国家和地区，包括英国、法国和德国。

Polymarket US 详解

Polymarket US 详解：这家受 CFTC 监管的交易所如何运作、KYC、美元入金、提供哪些市场，以及与国际版 Polymarket 的区别。

Polymarket Perps: perpetual futures explained

Polymarket Perps explained: how perpetual futures work, funding with 10 pUSD minimum, fee tiers, leverage up to 20x, liquidation and who can use them.

Polymarket 安全吗？

Polymarket 安全可靠吗？资金如何持有、真实风险（结算争议、监管、骗局、钱包安全），以及如何保护自己。

Polymarket fee calculator

Calculate the exact Polymarket taker fee for any trade by category, price and number of shares, using the official fee formula.

Polymarket profit calculator

Work out your Polymarket profit or loss before you trade: payout if you win, loss if you lose, selling early, taker fees and break-even probability.

Polymarket expected value calculator

Compare your probability estimate with the Polymarket price to find expected value per share on YES and NO, after taker fees.

Polymarket odds converter

Convert Polymarket prices in cents to implied probability, decimal, American and fractional odds, and back again, to compare with sportsbooks.

Kelly criterion position sizer

Size Polymarket positions with the Kelly criterion: enter price, your probability and bankroll to get full, half or quarter Kelly stake.

Polymarket arbitrage calculator

Check whether buying both YES and NO in a Polymarket market locks in a profit after Polymarket taker fees, and what to watch for across platforms.

Polymarket country checker

Search your country to see whether Polymarket is available, close-only or blocked in 2026, with a link to the full country guide.

Polymarket Perps fee calculator

Calculate Polymarket Perps trading fees by 30-day volume tier, maker or taker side and position size, including the top-tier maker rebate.

Polymarket referral earnings calculator

Estimate Polymarket referral income under the terms in force since May 2026: 10% of direct and 5% of indirect referrals' net fees for 30 days.

限价单与挂单返佣

用限价单把 Polymarket 交易成本降到零：挂单如何运作、挂单返佣如何发放，以及什么时候市价单仍然值得。

交易前如何读懂一个 Polymarket 市场

资深 Polymarket 交易者买入前使用的检查清单：结算规则、来源、截止时间、边缘情况和预言机状态。

Polymarket 资金管理

每笔 Polymarket 交易该投入多少：资金管理规则、凯利公式仓位计算、市场之间的相关性，以及如何避免爆仓。

Polymarket 套利详解

Polymarket 套利如何运作：YES + NO 低于 $1、多结果市场、Polymarket 与 Kalshi 的价差，以及让大多数“免费的钱”成为幻觉的风险。

在 Polymarket 上做新闻交易

交易者如何在 Polymarket 上应对新闻：在预定事件前做好准备、选择信息来源、何时使用市价单，以及内幕交易规则。

Polymarket 上的冷门与“稳赢”

热门-冷门偏差：为什么买 95¢ 的股份不是白捡的钱，以及如何看待 Polymarket 上便宜的冷门合约。

Market making on Polymarket

Market making on Polymarket: quoting both sides, inventory risk, adverse selection, maker rebates and liquidity rewards, and why it's hard for individuals.

Polymarket rewards and rebates in 2026

Polymarket reward programs in October 2026: liquidity rewards, maker rebates, taker rebate tiers Bronze to Obsidian, holding rewards and Perps rewards.

Copy trading on Polymarket

Does copy trading top Polymarket wallets work? Latency, slippage, survivorship bias, hidden hedges, insider rules, copy-bot scams and what to do instead.

Fundamental analysis for prediction markets

How to forecast Polymarket outcomes: base rates, polls and models, resolution sources, updating on news, calibration and keeping a forecast journal.

Polymarket in the United States

International site close-only; US users have Polymarket US, a separate CFTC-regulated app, in most states (not Nevada).

Polymarket in the United Kingdom

Not available: Polymarket blocks new trades from the UK.

Polymarket in Canada

Partly available: close-only in Ontario, BC, Alberta and Quebec; not geoblocked by Polymarket elsewhere in Canada.

Polymarket in India

Not available: blocked under India's online money gaming ban.

Polymarket in Spain

Not available: the DGOJ ordered ISP blocking in May 2026 pending sanction proceedings.

Polymarket in the Netherlands

Not available: the KSA ordered Polymarket to stop, and it restricts Dutch users.

Polymarket in Germany

Not available: Polymarket is close-only, and the GGL says these bets cannot be licensed.

Polymarket in Brazil

Not available: banned by Brazil's finance authorities and close-only on Polymarket.

Polymarket in Argentina

Not available: court-ordered nationwide block since March 2026.

Polymarket in Nigeria

Accessible: no specific regulator action found.

Polymarket in the Philippines

Mostly not available: PAGCOR ordered blocking, though enforcement varies by ISP.

Polymarket in Turkey

Not available: access-banned in Turkey since July 2026.