Prediction Primer Open Polymarket

Polymarket profit calculator

Each winning share pays $1. Your profit is $1 × shares minus what you paid and any taker fee. The calculator also shows the result of selling early and your break-even probability.

Example

100 YES shares at 40¢ cost $40. If YES wins they pay $100, a profit of about $60 before fees. If NO wins you lose $40. If the price climbs to 65¢ before the event, selling returns about $65.

Ready to try it? Check it is available where you live, then open Polymarket.

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Frequently asked questions

How is Polymarket payout calculated?

Number of winning shares × $1. Shares on the losing side pay nothing.

What is the break-even probability?

Your cost per share including fees. If you pay 40¢ plus fees, the outcome must happen more than roughly 40% of the time for the trade to pay off long term.