Prediction Primer Open Polymarket

How to trade on Polymarket

Open a market, read its resolution rules, choose YES or NO, enter an amount and confirm. Use limit orders to avoid taker fees and slippage, and remember you can sell any time before the market closes.

Quick steps

  1. Pick a market. Browse by category or search for an event.
  2. Read the rules. Open the market's rules and resolution source. The headline is not the whole contract.
  3. Choose YES or NO. Select the outcome you think is underpriced.
  4. Choose an order type. A market order fills now and pays the taker fee; a limit order waits for your price and pays no fee.
  5. Confirm and track. Confirm the trade, then follow the position in your portfolio. Sell early or hold to resolution.

1. Read the market properly

Every market has a rules section that defines exactly what counts as YES, which source decides it and when it closes. Two markets with near-identical titles can resolve differently because of one word in the rules. Read it before you buy.

2. Understand the price

The YES price plus the NO price is roughly $1. If YES trades at 35¢, NO trades around 65¢. Buy YES if you think the true chance is above 35%; buy NO if you think it is below. Your potential profit per share is $1 minus your entry price.

Ready to try it? Check it is available where you live, then open Polymarket.

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3. Market orders vs. limit orders

Market orderLimit order
FillsImmediately at the best available pricesOnly at your price or better
FeeTaker fee on most categoriesNo fee if it rests on the book (maker), plus possible rebates
RiskSlippage in thin marketsMay not fill

A limit order priced to cross the spread fills immediately and counts as a taker order, so it pays the fee too. See Polymarket fees for the numbers.

4. Getting out

You can sell shares at any point while the market is open. You do not have to wait for the result. After the event resolves, winning shares are worth $1 each and can be redeemed into your balance.

Beginner mistakes to avoid

  • Buying at 95¢+ “because it's certain”. You risk 95¢ to make 5¢, and surprises happen.
  • Putting large market orders into thin markets and moving the price against yourself.
  • Ignoring the resolution source and date.
  • Betting more than you can afford to lose. Treat every position as money you might not get back.

Frequently asked questions

What is the minimum bet on Polymarket?

There is no large minimum; you can buy small numbers of shares. Your practical minimum is set by the minimum deposit and by order book liquidity.

Can I sell before the event ends?

Yes. Shares can be sold at the current market price at any time before the market closes.

What happens when a market resolves?

Winning shares become worth $1 each and losing shares $0. If a resolution is disputed, settlement can take longer.