Prediction Primer Open Polymarket

Polymarket trading strategies

No strategy guarantees profit. These are the habits that separate careful traders from people who pay the spread.

Strategies

Limit orders and maker rebates

Cut your Polymarket costs to zero with limit orders: how maker orders work, how maker rebates are paid and when a market order is still worth it.

Strategies

How to read a Polymarket market before you trade

The checklist experienced Polymarket traders use before buying: resolution rules, sources, deadlines, edge cases and oracle status.

Strategies

Bankroll management for Polymarket

How much to put on each Polymarket trade: bankroll rules, Kelly sizing, correlation between markets and avoiding ruin.

Strategies

Polymarket arbitrage explained

How Polymarket arbitrage works: YES + NO under $1, multi-outcome markets, Polymarket vs Kalshi spreads, and the risks that make most 'free money' illusory.

Strategies

Trading the news on Polymarket

How traders react to news on Polymarket: preparing before scheduled events, choosing sources, when to use market orders, and the insider-trading rules.

Strategies

Longshots and 'sure things' on Polymarket

The favourite-longshot bias, why buying 95¢ shares isn't free money, and how to think about cheap longshot contracts on Polymarket.

Strategies

Market making on Polymarket

Market making on Polymarket: quoting both sides, inventory risk, adverse selection, maker rebates and liquidity rewards, and why it's hard for individuals.

Strategies

Polymarket rewards and rebates in 2026

Polymarket reward programs in October 2026: liquidity rewards, maker rebates, taker rebate tiers Bronze to Obsidian, holding rewards and Perps rewards.

Strategies

Copy trading on Polymarket

Does copy trading top Polymarket wallets work? Latency, slippage, survivorship bias, hidden hedges, insider rules, copy-bot scams and what to do instead.

Strategies

Fundamental analysis for prediction markets

How to forecast Polymarket outcomes: base rates, polls and models, resolution sources, updating on news, calibration and keeping a forecast journal.