What is Polymarket and how does it work?
Polymarket is a prediction market: you trade YES and NO shares on real-world events. A winning share pays $1, a losing share pays $0, and the price in between reflects what traders collectively think the odds are.
The basic idea
Every Polymarket market asks a question with a clear, written resolution rule, for example “Will the Fed cut rates at its December meeting?”. Each question has outcome shares, usually YES and NO. When the event is settled, shares of the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each and the others become worthless.
Because a share pays at most $1, its price is easy to read as a probability. A YES share trading at 62¢ means the market, on balance, puts the chance at roughly 62%. If you think the true chance is higher, buying YES is a bet that the market is too pessimistic.
A worked example
- You buy 100 YES shares at 40¢. You pay $40 (plus a small taker fee if you hit an existing order).
- If the event happens, your shares are worth 100 × $1 = $100. Profit: about $60.
- If it does not happen, the shares are worth $0. Loss: $40.
- You do not have to wait for the result. If the price rises to 70¢ before the event, you can sell for about $70 and take the gain early.
An exchange, not a bookmaker
Polymarket runs an order book. You trade against other people, not against the house. That has two practical consequences: prices move with supply and demand, and how much you can buy at a given price depends on liquidity. Large orders in thin markets can move the price against you.
Polymarket US vs. the international platform
There are now two separate products:
| Polymarket (international) | Polymarket US | |
|---|---|---|
| Who can use it | Users in countries that are not geoblocked | US residents |
| Regulation | Not registered in the US | CFTC-regulated exchange (QCX LLC) |
| Account | Email or crypto wallet | Full identity verification (KYC) |
| Money | Crypto, settled in pUSD on Polygon | US dollar funding |
| Markets | Full catalogue | Narrower, regulated catalogue |
Polymarket US launched in December 2025 after the company bought a CFTC-licensed exchange, and it removed the waitlist for iPhone users in May 2026. US residents are still blocked from the international site.
What is pUSD?
On the international platform, balances are held in pUSD (Polymarket USD), a token on the Polygon network backed 1:1 by USDC. Whatever you deposit (USDC, USDT, ETH, SOL, BTC and many other tokens) is converted to pUSD on arrival, and pUSD is converted back to USDC when you withdraw. For everyday use you can treat 1 pUSD as $1.
The risks worth knowing
- You can lose your whole stake. A share bought at 90¢ still goes to $0 if the outcome does not happen.
- Resolution risk. Markets settle by their written rules, not by headlines. Disputed markets go to a vote by UMA token holders, and some results have been controversial. See how markets resolve.
- Legal risk. Polymarket is blocked in many countries. Using it from a restricted location breaks its terms and can lead to frozen accounts.
- Crypto risk. Sending funds to the wrong network or address is usually irreversible.
Ready to try it? Check it is available where you live, then open Polymarket.
Open PolymarketFrequently asked questions
Who owns Polymarket?
Polymarket was founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020. The international exchange and the US exchange (Polymarket US, run through QCX LLC) are separate entities.
Is Polymarket gambling or investing?
Legally it depends on the country. US federal regulators treat its event contracts as derivatives, while regulators in France and several other European countries have classed prediction markets as unlicensed gambling.
Are Polymarket odds accurate?
Prices reflect what traders are willing to pay, which often tracks real-world probabilities well, especially in liquid markets. They are not guarantees, and thin markets can be noisy.