Polymarket vs Manifold
Manifold uses play money (Mana) that can't be cashed out, so it is free and legal everywhere but you can't win money. Polymarket is real money.
Side-by-side comparison
| Polymarket (international) | Manifold Markets | |
|---|---|---|
| Type | Crypto prediction market | Play-money |
| Regulator | Not registered in the US; restricted or blocked in 40+ countries and regions | None (play money, no real-money trading) |
| Who can use it | Countries not geoblocked by Polymarket or national regulators | Worldwide (web and app) |
| Fees | Taker fee = shares × feeRate × p × (1 − p); feeRate 0 (geopolitics) to 0.07 (crypto). Makers pay $0 and earn rebates. No deposit or withdrawal fee. | No trading fees on bets, which are made in play-money Mana (M$). Creating a market costs from M$50, which seeds the AMM's liquidity. Mana can be bought at about M$100 per $1 (e.g. $5 = M$500), with bonuses up to M$130 per $1 on large packs. |
| Funding | Crypto from many chains, converted to pUSD on Polygon | Free M$1,000 on signup. Optional Mana purchases by card. Mana cannot be cashed out, only donated to vetted charities at M$100 = $1. |
| Identity checks | Email or wallet sign-up | No |
| Markets | Politics, geopolitics, crypto, sports, economics, culture, weather, tech | Anything users create: politics, AI, tech, science, sports, personal questions. Binary, multiple-choice and numeric markets. Very long tail of niche questions. |
| How outcomes are settled | Written rules + UMA Optimistic Oracle; disputes decided by UMA token-holder vote | The market creator resolves by default. Disputes go to community discussion and moderators. A reviewer's sample found about 4% of resolved markets drew dispute discussion and about 1% were revised by moderators. |
| Recent volume | About $4.6B notional in the 30 days to 18 October 2026 (DeFi Rate data) | Not applicable (play money). No platform-wide 2026 volume figure found. |
Manifold Markets: strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
- Free, legal everywhere, no KYC
- Anyone can create a market on any topic
- Good for learning and calibration practice with no financial risk
Weaknesses
- No real money: cannot win cash (only optional USDC prize drawings)
- Creator-resolved markets carry bias and dispute risk
- Thin liquidity on most markets
What changed in 2026
The 'Sweepcash' real-money sweepstakes mode (launched Sept 2024) shut down on March 28, 2025, and the site has been Mana-only since. Manifold runs periodic free-entry prize drawings paid in USDC.
Which should you choose?
Manifold is a great place to practise forecasting and test your calibration with no risk. If you want to trade real money, Polymarket (where available) is the real thing, with real losses.
Ready to try it? Check it is available where you live, then open Polymarket.
Open PolymarketFigures checked in October 2026. Fees and availability change often; confirm on each platform's own site.
Frequently asked questions
Is Manifold Markets better than Polymarket?
It depends on where you live and what you trade. Manifold uses play money (Mana) that can't be cashed out, so it is free and legal everywhere but you can't win money. Polymarket is real money.
Which is cheaper, Polymarket or Manifold Markets?
Polymarket: Taker fee = shares × feeRate × p × (1 − p); feeRate 0 (geopolitics) to 0.07 (crypto). Makers pay $0 and earn rebates. No deposit or withdrawal fee. Manifold Markets: No trading fees on bets, which are made in play-money Mana (M$). Creating a market costs from M$50, which seeds the AMM's liquidity. Mana can be bought at about M$100 per $1 (e.g. $5 = M$500), with bonuses up to M$130 per $1 on large packs.