Polymarket vs Predict.fun
Predict.fun is the largest BNB Chain prediction market and uses the same UMA oracle as Polymarket, but it is much smaller and charges takers up to 2% on low-priced shares.
Side-by-side comparison
| Polymarket (international) | Predict.fun | |
|---|---|---|
| Type | Crypto prediction market | Crypto |
| Regulator | Not registered in the US; restricted or blocked in 40+ countries and regions | None |
| Who can use it | Countries not geoblocked by Polymarket or national regulators | Global, except the United States, UK, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, Taiwan, Australia, Belgium and sanctioned regions. 18+. VPN use is prohibited. |
| Fees | Taker fee = shares × feeRate × p × (1 − p); feeRate 0 (geopolitics) to 0.07 (crypto). Makers pay $0 and earn rebates. No deposit or withdrawal fee. | Takers only; makers pay 0. Raw taker fee = 2% x min(price, 1 - price) x shares (with a 10% discount where applicable). Range is 0.018%-2% of trade value. Minimum order is 1 USDT. |
| Funding | Crypto from many chains, converted to pUSD on Polygon | Crypto wallet (Predict Smart Wallet) with USDT or USDC on BNB Chain (a small legacy deployment exists on Blast). Integrated into Binance Wallet. |
| Identity checks | Email or wallet sign-up | No formal KYC |
| Markets | Politics, geopolitics, crypto, sports, economics, culture, weather, tech | Crypto price up/down (Chainlink Data Streams), sports, politics, and culture and events. |
| How outcomes are settled | Written rules + UMA Optimistic Oracle; disputes decided by UMA token-holder vote | UMA Optimistic Oracle (proposal, challenge period, on-chain settlement), the same model as Polymarket international. Chainlink Data Streams resolve price markets. |
| Recent volume | About $4.6B notional in the 30 days to 18 October 2026 (DeFi Rate data) | 30 days to Oct 19, 2026: $350.2M volume ($696.2M notional), per DefiLlama. About $120M in the final week of Sept 2026. Cumulative $3.5B ($7.25B notional). |
Predict.fun: strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
- Currently the largest BNB Chain prediction market by 30-day volume
- UMA resolution, familiar to Polymarket users
- Binance Wallet distribution, with backing from YZi Labs and Susquehanna Crypto
Weaknesses
- Blocked in the US, UK and many other countries
- Far smaller liquidity than Polymarket or Kalshi
- Taker fees up to 2% on low-priced shares
What changed in 2026
Launched December 2025 and acquired PancakeSwap-incubated rival Probable in March 2026. It powers Binance Wallet's in-app prediction market beta, and its volume roughly doubled week-on-week after that integration.
Which should you choose?
Predict.fun is the largest BNB Chain prediction market and uses the same UMA oracle as Polymarket, but it is much smaller and charges takers up to 2% on low-priced shares. Compare fees with our fee calculator and check whether each platform is allowed where you live before signing up.
Ready to try it? Check it is available where you live, then open Polymarket.
Open PolymarketFigures checked in October 2026. Fees and availability change often; confirm on each platform's own site.
Frequently asked questions
Is Predict.fun better than Polymarket?
It depends on where you live and what you trade. Predict.fun is the largest BNB Chain prediction market and uses the same UMA oracle as Polymarket, but it is much smaller and charges takers up to 2% on low-priced shares.
Which is cheaper, Polymarket or Predict.fun?
Polymarket: Taker fee = shares × feeRate × p × (1 − p); feeRate 0 (geopolitics) to 0.07 (crypto). Makers pay $0 and earn rebates. No deposit or withdrawal fee. Predict.fun: Takers only; makers pay 0. Raw taker fee = 2% x min(price, 1 - price) x shares (with a 10% discount where applicable). Range is 0.018%-2% of trade value. Minimum order is 1 USDT.