Polymarket vs PredictIt
PredictIt is a small, US politics-only market with high fees (10% of profits plus 5% on withdrawals) and a $3,500 cap per contract. Polymarket covers far more topics with much lower costs.
Side-by-side comparison
| Polymarket (international) | PredictIt | |
|---|---|---|
| Type | Crypto prediction market | Regulated exchange (politics only) |
| Regulator | Not registered in the US; restricted or blocked in 40+ countries and regions | CFTC. Sources conflict on the legal basis. Several reviews (Sept 2026) say it still operates under CFTC staff no-action Letter 14-130 as amended by Letter 25-20 (July 14, 2025), run by the nonprofit Prediction Market Research Consortium with Aristotle International as servicer. Separately, the CFTC approved Aristotle as a DCM and DCO ('Aristotle Exchange') on Sept 5, 2025, and some reports describe PredictIt as fully DCM-regulated from January 2026. |
| Who can use it | Countries not geoblocked by Polymarket or national regulators | US residents 18+, nationwide. |
| Fees | Taker fee = shares × feeRate × p × (1 − p); feeRate 0 (geopolitics) to 0.07 (crypto). Makers pay $0 and earn rebates. No deposit or withdrawal fee. | 10% of net profit per market (on a winning sale or at settlement; nothing on losses). 5% fee on all withdrawals. No deposit fees or per-trade commissions. International wire withdrawals cost an extra $40. |
| Funding | Crypto from many chains, converted to pUSD on Polygon | Credit or debit card, PayNearMe cash, $10 minimum. Withdrawals by ACH or check ($10 minimum). 30-day hold on funds after the first deposit (60 days for international users). |
| Identity checks | Email or wallet sign-up | Yes. Personal details and a government-issued ID before funding. |
| Markets | Politics, geopolitics, crypto, sports, economics, culture, weather, tech | Political only: US House and Senate control, individual 2026 midterm races, governors, approval ratings, nominations, plus some UK and EU politics. No sports, crypto, economics or entertainment. |
| How outcomes are settled | Written rules + UMA Optimistic Oracle; disputes decided by UMA token-holder vote | Centralized. PredictIt settles per each contract's rules using official results and named sources. |
| Recent volume | About $4.6B notional in the 30 days to 18 October 2026 (DeFi Rate data) | No reliable 2026 volume figure found. It is very small next to Kalshi and Polymarket and does not appear in DeFi Rate's tracked-venue totals. |
PredictIt: strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
- Long-running, well-known political market in the US
- Simple interface focused on elections
- Per-contract limit raised from $850 to $3,500, and the 5,000-trader cap removed (2025)
Weaknesses
- Very high effective fees (10% of profits plus 5% on withdrawals)
- Politics only
- $3,500 cap per contract limits bigger traders
- 30-day withdrawal hold
What changed in 2026
PredictIt won its litigation against the CFTC in July 2025, relaunched nationwide in Sept 2025, and gained higher limits. The 2026 midterms are its main market. Reports mention gaming-law disputes in Massachusetts and Nevada. Its exact regulatory wrapper in 2026 (no-action letter vs Aristotle DCM) is reported inconsistently, so check predictit.org for its current status.
Which should you choose?
PredictIt suits casual US political traders who want a simple, long-running venue. For anything else (other topics, bigger size, lower costs) Polymarket or Kalshi are far cheaper. Check predictit.org for its current regulatory status, which is reported inconsistently.
Ready to try it? Check it is available where you live, then open Polymarket.
Open PolymarketFigures checked in October 2026. Fees and availability change often; confirm on each platform's own site.
Frequently asked questions
Is PredictIt better than Polymarket?
It depends on where you live and what you trade. PredictIt is a small, US politics-only market with high fees (10% of profits plus 5% on withdrawals) and a $3,500 cap per contract. Polymarket covers far more topics with much lower costs.
Which is cheaper, Polymarket or PredictIt?
Polymarket: Taker fee = shares × feeRate × p × (1 − p); feeRate 0 (geopolitics) to 0.07 (crypto). Makers pay $0 and earn rebates. No deposit or withdrawal fee. PredictIt: 10% of net profit per market (on a winning sale or at settlement; nothing on losses). 5% fee on all withdrawals. No deposit fees or per-trade commissions. International wire withdrawals cost an extra $40.